Arman Hakim Nasution : A Development of Preliminary Inter Competition Dynamic Model

Ir. Arman Hakim Nasution M.Eng

Year

2015

Published in

SRIWIJAYA ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS CONFRENCE

External link

Type

Seminar Nasional

Keywords

Bass/Sterman model intra competition inter competition modified Lotka-Volterra


Abstract

Competition model have been used to predict business growth competition in the future. Initial competition model had been developed based on analytical method on Lotka-Volterra (LV) base. There are many research on analytic growth business competition, especially for competition model based on modified LV. In the context of historical growth analytic, S-curve model is used to be as a basic model to analyse historical growth, especially in technology evolution. Bass model is one of the most populer of S-curve model. On purpose of making growth prediction, the development of analytic model LV dynamically by Ahmadian (2008) still can not represented dynamic condition of growth prediction, because of interaction between entities just based on differential equation on LV. Modification of Dynamic LV by Unver (2008) just focused on competition betwen new technology and old in one product (inside/intra competition). A dynamic simulation Bass model by Sterman is constructed better in representing dynamic competition model. Nevertheless, both of analytical and simulation methods stiil not developed in the case of competition between multi product that refer as a cross competition by Dimotikalis (2001) or as inter competition term. This paper purposes are: first, explaining the evolution on intra competition model from analitycal model based on modified LV to dynamic simulation Bass/Sterman diffusion model. Second: developing a preliminary dynamic inter competition model from Bass/Sterman model to accomodate an inter competition problem.